Swine Flu Report

http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com

The Fast And The Furious…

Well, Two days since media has reported news of this new “swine flu” hanging around

Mexico, and now things are really heating up. There are several reports that now confirm

this flu spreading to parts of the US, Europe, Africa, Australia and even New Zealand.

People seem to be on a mild pace of panic right now, putting on masks, staying away from

large crowds & washing their hands everywhere they go, and rightly so.

The Swine Flu has already claimed the lives of up to 200 people now officials say. Most are

from Mexico and surrounding areas. So far, there is only one death reported in the US,

which was an infant.

It’s seems like things will get worse in the short term, but the investigations carried out

while this fast and furious panic carries on. We are lead to believe there is a pattern to how

this problem will play out. And we bring our forecast at the end of this report to ensure you

stay ahead of the crowd.

Let’s Panic..The Sky Is Falling…

Before giving our forecast, let’s start with 5 critical elements that we need to understand

about this ‘Swine Flu’.

1. Is this a flu pandemic now?

The influenza virus is constantly mutating. That’s why we can’t get full immunity to the flu,

the way we can to diseases like chicken pox, because there are multiple strains of the flu

virus and they change from year to year. However, even though the virus makes us sick,

our immune systems can usually muster enough of a response so that the flu is rarely fatal

for healthy people.

But every once in awhile, the virus shifts its genetic structure so much that our immune

systems offer no protection whatsoever. (This usually happens when a flu virus found in

animals – like the avian flu still circulating in Asia – swaps genes with other viruses in a

process called reassortment, and jumps to human beings.) A flu pandemic occurs when a

new flu virus emerges for which humans have little or no immunity and then spreads easily

from person to person around the world. In the 20th century we had two mild flu

pandemics, in 1968 and 1957, and the severe “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918, which killed

an estimated 40 to 50 million people worldwide.

The WHO has the responsibility of declaring when a new flu pandemic is underway, and to

simplify the process, the U.N. body has established six pandemic phases. Thanks to H5N1

avian flu, which has killed 257 people since 2003 but doesn’t spread very well from one

human to another, we’re currently at phase 3. If the WHO upgraded that status to phase 4,

which is marked by a new virus that begins to pass easily enough from person to person

that we can detect community-sized outbreaks, such a move would effectively mean that

we’ve got a pandemic on our hands.

The H1N1 swine flu virus has already been identified as a new virus, with genes from

human and avian flus as well as the swine variety. And since it is apparently causing large-

scale outbreaks in Mexico, along with separate confirmed cases in the U.S. and Canada

and suspected cases in other countries, it would seem that we’ve already met the criteria

for phase 4. But though an emergency committee met on April 25 to evaluate the situation,

the WHO hasn’t made the pandemic declaration yet. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s interim

assistant director-general for health, security and environment, said on Sunday that its

experts “would like a little bit more information and a little bit more time to consider this.”

The committee is set to meet again by April 28 at the latest.

As health officials have repeatedly emphasized, with good reason, the swine flu situation is

evolving rapidly, and more lab tests are needed to ascertain exactly what is going on in

Mexico and elsewhere. “We want to make sure we’re on solid ground,” said Fukuda, a

highly respected former CDC official and flu expert.

2. What will happen if this outbreak gets classified as a pandemic?

Moving the world to pandemic phase 4 would be the signal for serious containment actions

to be taken on the national and international level. Given that these actions would have

major implications for the global economy, not to mention the effects of the public fear that

would ensue, there is concern that the WHO may be considering politics along with

science. “What the WHO did makes no sense,” says Osterholm. “In a potential pandemic,

you need to have the WHO be beyond question, and (April 25) was not a good day for

them.”

Of course, declaring a pandemic isn’t a decision that should be taken lightly. For the WHO,

phase 4 might trigger an attempt to keep the virus from spreading by instituting strict

quarantines and blanketing infected areas with antivirals. But we appear to have missed

the opportunity to contain the disease at its source since the virus is already crossing

borders with ease. “We cannot stop this at the border,” said Anne Schuchat, the CDC’s

interim director for science and public health. “We don’t think that we can quench this in

Mexico if it’s in many communities now.”

That would leave the WHO and individual countries to fall back on damage control, using

antivirals and old-fashioned infection control – like closing schools, limiting public gatherings

and even restricting travel – to slow the spread of the virus. But such efforts would likely

inflict serious damage on an already faltering global economy – and the truth is, we don’t

know how well those methods will work.

3. Why have the U.S. cases been so much milder than the ones in Mexico?

This is the question that has health officials from Geneva to Washington puzzled. In

Mexico, swine flu has caused severe respiratory disease in a number of patients – and even

more worryingly, has killed the sort of young and healthy people who can normally shrug off

the flu. (Fueling such concerns is the fact that similar age groups died in unusually high

numbers during the 1918 pandemic.) Yet the cases in the U.S. have all been mild and likely

wouldn’t have even garnered much attention if doctors hadn’t begun actively looking for

swine flu in recent days. “What we’re seeing in this country so far is not anywhere near the

severity of what we’re hearing about in Mexico,” said the CDC’s Besser. “We need to

understand that.”

Some of the difference may be due to the fact that Mexico has apparently been grappling

with swine flu for weeks longer than the U.S. As doctors across the U.S. begin checking

patients with respiratory symptoms for swine flu, CDC officials expect to see more severe

cases in the U.S. as well – and as better epidemiological work is done in Mexico, we’ll

probably hear about more mild cases there too. Right now, however, the true severity of the

H1N1 swine flu virus is still an open question, whose answer could change over time. The

1918 Spanish flu pandemic began with a fairly mild wave of infections in the spring, but the

virus returned a few months later in a far more virulent form. That could happen with the

current swine flu as well. “It’s quite possible for this virus to evolve,” said Fukuda. “When

viruses evolve, clearly they can become more dangerous to people.”

4. How ready is the U.S. – and the world – to respond to a flu pandemic?

In some ways, the world is better prepared for a flu pandemic today than it has ever been.

Thanks to concerns over H5N1 avian flu, the WHO, the U.S. and countries around the

world have stockpiled millions of doses of antivirals that can help fight swine flu as well as

other strains of influenza. The U.S. has a detailed pandemic preparation plan that was

drafted under former President George W. Bush. Many other countries have similar plans.

SARS and bird flu have given international health officials useful practice runs for dealing

with a real pandemic. We can identify new viruses faster than ever before, and we have

life-saving technologies – like artificial respirators and antivirals – that weren’t available back

in 1918. “I believe that the world is much, much better prepared than we have ever been for

dealing with this kind of situation,” said Fukuda.

At the same time, the very nature of globalization puts us at greater risk. International air

travel means that infections can spread very quickly. And while the WHO can prepare a

new swine flu vaccine strain in fairly short order, we still use a laborious, decades-old

process to manufacture vaccines, meaning it would take months before the pharmaceutical

industry could produce its full capacity of doses – and even then, there wouldn’t be enough

for everyone on the planet. The U.S. could be particularly vulnerable; only one plant, in

Stillwater, Penn., makes flu vaccine in America. In a pandemic, that could produce some

ugly political debates. “Do you really think the E.U. is going to release pandemic vaccine to

the U.S. when its own people need it?” asks Osterholm.

Indeed, the greatest risk from a pandemic might not turn out to be from the swine flu virus

itself – especially if it ends up being relatively mild – but what Osterholm calls “collateral

damage” if governments respond to the emergency by instituting border controls and

disrupting world trade. Not only would the global recession worsen – a 2008 World Bank

report estimated that a severe pandemic could reduce the world’s GDP by 4.8% – but we

depend on international trade now for countless necessities, from generic medicines to

surgical gloves. The just-in-time production systems embraced by companies like Wal-Mart

- where inventories are kept as low as possible to cut waste and boost profit – mean that we

don’t have stockpiles of most things. Supply chains for food, medicines and even the coal

that generates half our electricity are easily disruptable, with potentially catastrophic results.

Though we’ll likely hear calls to close the border with Mexico, Osterholm points out that a

key component used in artificial respirators comes from Mexico. “We are more vulnerable

to a pandemic now than at any other time over the past 100 years,” he says. “We can’t

depend on ourselves.”

5. So how scared should we be?

That depends on whom you ask. Officials at the CDC and the WHO have emphasized that

while the swine flu situation is serious, they’re responding with an abundance of

precautions. Even Osterholm, who has been highly critical of the U.S. government’s long-

term failures to better prepare for a pandemic, gives the CDC a 9 out of 10 for its response

so far. Outside of Mexico, the swine flu hasn’t looked too serious yet – unlike during the

SARS outbreaks of 2003, when an entirely new virus with no obvious treatment took the

world by surprise. In the U.S., the normal flu season is winding down, which should make it

easier for public-health officials to pick out swine flu cases from run-of-the-mill respiratory

disease. And there are simple things that people can do to protect themselves, like

practicing better hygiene (wash hands frequently and cover mouth and nose when

sneezing) and staying away from public places or traveling if they feel sick. “There’s a role

for everyone to play when an outbreak is ongoing,” said Besser.

But the truth is that every outbreak is unpredictable, and there’s a lot we don’t know yet

about the new swine flu. There hasn’t been a flu pandemic for more than a generation, and

there hasn’t been a truly virulent pandemic since long before the arrival of mass air transit.

We’re in terra incognito here. Panic would be counterproductive – especially if it results in

knee-jerk reactions like closing international borders, which would only complicate the

public-health response. But neither should we downplay our very real vulnerabilities. As

Napolitano put it: “This will be a marathon, not a sprint.” Be prepared..

What Happens Now… Perls Before ‘Swine’?

Now we have a bit of background knowledge and we have studied this problem from a few

different angles, our latest forecast predictions gives us a summation of what events could

occur in the coming months. It is not time to panic, but to be cautious. If called to wear

masks or to remain at home, you must do so. .

Safety First…

For those in a bit of despair, we have included several resource links below to help prepare

for the coming months. It’s always important to be prepared.

Recommended Links :-

http://colloidalsilversecrets.blogspot.com/2009/04/colloidal-silver-and-swine-flu-7.html

http://www2a.cdc.gov/podcasts/player.asp?f=11226

http://www.cdc.gov/flu

http://www.pandemicflu.gov

Please pass this report onto others.

The Forecast …

“SWINE FLU”

Possible trends or events to take place in 2009 / 2010 :-

- Warning, Problem will become critical in time. April / May = First Wave Of Flu.

- Epidemic Status Currently, Pandemic Status Soon At End Of 09’ (Nov / Dec ??).

- No rhyme or limited reasoning to the areas that will be affected by this flu.

- Quarantined Areas Situated Strategically Around The Globe. Heavily in the U.S.

- Numerous Road blocks, law enforcement and military guarding will be seen, many

wearing surgical masks and gloves, a lot of medical people taking vitals and

temperatures even for supply trucks, and others trying to get through.

- A Majority of air traffic & ground will come to a sudden halt, international flights

cancelled, and airline counters shutting down. Small communities closed.

- Many stores, gas stations, offices and banks will close… may seem like a major

holiday, very few cars on the streets, mostly emergency, heavy police and military

vehicle presence.

- Mild waves of swine will occur in 2009 with a “deadly” Wave very Late in Year.

- People all over the world will be wearing masks, malls will close, schools closed and

many businesses also with large groups of people asked to stay at home.

- The Swine flu will further add to the economic collapse world-wide / Depression.

- Trade, travel, and all that will be limited, and people will not be allowed out in some

places, except for medical care and possible shopping for food items

- A 2% (approx) death rate will occur from those infected with “Swine”

http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com